2018 Season end analysis (Full text)

Posted by FKC on 2018-10-22

With 2 stages left until the end of season we decided to analyze the chances of those who mathematically can become 2018 champion. At this point we have only 3 candidates left: Andreas, Martin and Niklas. Anatoly Hramov lost this chance after the last race in Enköping: if he wins both upcoming races being on pole positions and setting best lap times in both of them, and Andreas won’t show up or will be disqualified from the race, both time they will have the same amount of points with the same amount of victories. In this case tie-breaker will be settled by the amount of 2nd places. And Anatoly will have only one of them against two for Andreas.

On the 3rd place at the moment is Niklas Enholm. In order to keep his hopes for the championship alive he needs to win at least 12 points from Andreas in Dalarna. Here are the possible scenarios to match this outcome:

Niklas finish

Andreas finish

1st + PP + FL

4th or lower

1st + FL

4th or lower + no PP

1st + PP

5th or lower + no FL

1st

5th or lower + no PP + no FL

2nd + PP + FL

6th or lower

2nd + FL

6th or lower + no PP

2nd + PP

7th or lower + no FL

2nd

7th or lower + no PP + no FL

3rd + PP + FL

7th or lower

3rd + FL

8th or lower + no PP

3rd + PP

9th or lower + no FL

3rd

10th or lower + no PP + no FL

 

If we assume that there will be max 10 participants in the next race, then by finishing 4th or lower (10th only with PP) Niklas can move intrigue forward only if Andreas won’t participate or will be disqualified from the race.

2nd place right now is taken by Martin Brzezinka. Despite this fact, his chances for the title are much lower than Niklas’s. This is because of the rule of championship points which says that “If participant scored points in every stage of the season, his two worst gained results will be taken out of the final standings.” So far, he participated in all 10 stages, and that means that not all points that he will gain during the next 2 races will be counted into his account. With this he needs to win at least 16 clean points from Andreas in Dalarna to continue his fight for the title. Again, if we assume that there will be max 10 participants in the next race, Martin needs only victory together with either pole position or fastest lap where Andreas won’t score any point. The odds are not in Martin favor in this case.

That brings us to championship leader Andreas Lamnerius. It will be enough for him to finish next race in top 3 to clinch the title! This season stats show that he was on podium in every race but one where he got pushed off in an accident. So, it is very likely that we might see the new champion already on the 3rd of November!

 

 

Battle for the 2nd place isn’t over yet either. And this is what Anatoly still can fight for. He just needs to earn minimum of 20 points and at the same time not to lose more than 11 points to Niklas in the upcoming race. Quite manageable task for the Latvian. Niklas theoretically can miss the next race and still fight for the middle-height trophy in the last stage. But in this case his chances will drop down dramatically. Martin, however, will do anything to get as many points as possible knowing that he might earn maximum of 35 points for both races.

Of course, we should not forget about Emil Östman and Slawomir Wachowski who in a very very limited scenario options still can jump into top 3 train. But most likely they will lose all the chances already in 2 weeks.

Basing on information above we can try and make our predictions on GoKart PRIX 2018 season outcome:

 

Champion

2nd place

3rd place

4th and lower

Andreas

90,5%

9,0%

0,5%

-

Niklas

9,0%

71,5%

12,0%

7,5%

Martin

0,5%

10,0%

43,5%

46,0%

Anatoly

-

9,5%

43,0%

47,5%

Emil

-

-

0,5%

99,5%

Slawomir

-

-

0,5%

99,5%

 

As you can see we predict that Andreas will most probably become the champion. Niklas is very good, but we’d bet on the 2nd place for him. And we think that the main battle will take place for the last trophy spot between Martin and Anatoly.

However, those are just odds, our thoughts and pure predictions. It all might have totally different outcome, because this is racing where anything can happen!

And what are your predictions?

 

 

If Andreas takes the title in Dalarna, it will be the first time in our championship history when champion is crowned right after the finale but one race. See for yourself!

2014 max 50 pts to earn

before final race

after final race

Anatoly Hramov

185

210

Igor Scavlev

139

189

 

2015 max 15 pts to earn

before final race

after final race

Karlis Ligeris

65

74

Anatoly Hramov

59

71

 

2016 max 14 pts to earn*

before final race

after final race

Cezary Blawat

117

117

Martin Brzezinka

101

115

*Because of dynamic points system in 2016 total points for the race were awarded depending on number of participants. In this case Cezary became champion right before the start of the final race.

2017 max 33 pts to earn

before final race

after final race

Emil Östman

241

268

Martin Brzezinka

212

230

 

Whatever outcome will be, it is still one of the best seasons we had so far! And it is all thanks to you!

Remember! You also can affect the results by participating in the next race! Registration is available on www.gokartprix.se or by e-mail gokartprix@gmail.com until the 26th of October 12:00!

Next Race
2019 Kista GoKart PRIX O'Learys Stockholm Kista Event Center
23-Nov-2019-11:30

Race Start In

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Registered Drivers
1 Christer Ekman
2 Slawomir Wachowski
3 Niklas Enholm
4 Mattias Norling